Lombardy’s production confirms a positive short-term trend, though it is slowing for industry (+0.4%), while it is negative for the craft sector (-0.5%). The year-on-year data follows the same pattern (+0.9% for industry and -0.3% for the craft sector), confirming a deceleration process that is further highlighted by negative signals from orders and turnover.

In the first quarter of 2019, industrial production recorded a positive short-term change (+0.4% seasonally adjusted), though this is decelerating following the more substantial recovery of the previous quarter (+0.9%), which interrupted the technical recession of mid-2018. Year-on-year growth is also confirmed to be decelerating compared to previous quarters (+0.9%).

The industrial production index has risen to 112.3 (seasonally adjusted, 2010 base year=100), moving closer to the pre-crisis peak of 113.3 recorded in 2007.

From a sectoral perspective, 2019 began with an overall positive production result, though this is deteriorating, with an increase in the number of sectors in negative territory (6 out of 13).

The most negative short-term data for this quarter comes from orders, which have contracted for both the domestic market (-1.5%) and the foreign market (-0.7%). The domestic market also recorded a year-on-year contraction (-0.9%), while the foreign market remains positive (+1.0%) but is showing a marked deceleration compared to last year's average (+4.9%).

Employment in the industrial sector shows a positive balance (+0.5%), thanks to a slowdown in the exit rate, which fell to 1.7%, and an acceleration in the entry rate, which rose to 2.1%—trends characteristic of the first quarter of the year, when hiring is concentrated. When considering the short-term change net of seasonal effects, the variation is zero.

Industrial entrepreneurs' expectations regarding production are worsening and have returned to negative territory for the first time in four years. Expectations regarding employment are also in decline, although the balance between optimists and pessimists remains positive. Conversely, expectations for both domestic and foreign demand have improved.

Attachments

• UCL-1 2019 CONFERENCE (PDF)
• UCL-1 CREDIT AND FINANCE 2019 CONFERENCE (PDF)
• Q1 2019 Economic Survey Press Release (PDF)
• Q1 2019 Final (PDF)